Explained: How Pakistan Can Still Reach the Asia Cup 2025 Final Despite Losing to India in the Super Four Match

Pakistan suffered a six-wicket defeat against India in their Super Four clash of the Asia Cup 2025 in Dubai. Unlike India and Bangladesh, who began the Super Four stage with victories, Pakistan could not replicate their earlier success, starting their campaign on a disappointing note. With Sri Lanka as the fourth team, the battle for a spot in the final remains wide open.

In their second encounter of the tournament at the same Dubai venue, faced a harsh reversal after having beaten India by seven wickets in their previous meeting. Put into bat first, Pakistan managed 171/5 in 20 overs, thanks to Sahibzada Farhan’s 58 and handy contributions from Faheem Ashraf and Saim Ayub.

However, India’s response was clinical. Abhishek Sharma slammed 74 off 39 balls, including five sixes and six fours, while Shubman Gill scored 47 from 28 deliveries with eight boundaries, combining for a 105-run partnership in just 10 overs. Despite losing three quick wickets, Tilak Varma’s unbeaten 30 off 19 balls guided India to a six-wicket win with seven balls to spare.

How Can Pakistan Still Qualify for the Asia Cup 2025 Final?

After the first two matches, India lead the points table with a superior Net Run Rate (NRR) of +0.689, while Bangladesh sits at +0.121. With four games remaining in this Super Four phase, Pakistan and Sri Lanka are still in contention for a spot in the final, even though both teams have yet to open their account.

Pakistan faces a clear but challenging path: they must win their next two matches—first against Sri Lanka on Tuesday, followed by a clash with Bangladesh on Thursday. Two victories would take Salman Agha’s team to four points, setting up a potential high-stakes showdown with India in the final on Sunday, provided India also wins their remaining matches. Meanwhile, Sri Lanka would be eliminated if they suffer back-to-back defeats, starting with Tuesday’s game against Pakistan.

India and Bangladesh face off on Wednesday, and given India’s current form, they are expected to secure a win and likely confirm their place in the final. If Pakistan defeat Sri Lanka, and India beat Bangladesh, the Pakistan vs Bangladesh match on Thursday will effectively become a semi-final. The winner of that encounter will then advance to the final, potentially to face India.

There’s also a scenario where Pakistan could surpass India to reach the final: if Pakistan wins both their remaining games and India loses both theirs, the Men in Blue would need to battle their way back into contention against the other teams.

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